Russian Economy Expected to Grow 1.4-2.4% in 2027-2029, MinEc Says

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During a government meeting, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov presented the socio-economic development forecast for 2027-2029.

According to Reshetnikov, the Ministry of Economic Development (Ministry of Economy) has raised its economic growth estimate for 2026 to 0.6 percentage points. In the following three years, growth is expected to accelerate from 1.4% to 2.4%.

Reshetnikov noted that external conditions remain conservative: the price of Brent crude oil is projected at $73 per barrel for 2027, decreasing to $66 by 2029. The price of Urals crude oil is expected to be around $53 per barrel, declining to $51 by 2029.

Oil production for 2026 is estimated at 494 million tons. In 2027-2029, production is expected to recover to 500-505 million tons.

The average annual exchange rate for 2026 is set at 79.5 rubles per dollar. For 2027-2029, the forecast anticipates a gradual weakening of the ruble.

Inflation is projected to be 6.8% by the end of 2026, decreasing to 4% by the end of 2027.

Investment recovery is expected to begin in 2027, reaching 3% by 2029. The main drivers of growth during this period will be industries focused on the domestic market: manufacturing, pharmaceuticals, machinery, aviation, and electronics. Tourism, IT, and agriculture are also expected to show high growth rates.

"Overall, the forecast remains moderately conservative. External price conditions may turn out to be better than our expectations. However, risks remain that could lead to temporary deviations from the projected growth trajectory," Reshetnikov concluded.