U.S. Treasury Market Remains Resilient Amid Rising Interest Rates

20:10; 22 October 2026 year

### U.S. Treasury Market Overview: Rising Yields and Growing Debt Concerns The U.S. Treasury market is built on government bonds, known as Treasuries, issued by the U.S. Department of the Treasury to finance federal spending. These securities are traditionally considered among the safest and most liquid assets in the global financial system. Current market conditions reflect moderate tension: the yield on 10-year Treasuries (US 10y) approached 5.09% on Thursday. The yield curve for U.S. government debt remains differentiated by maturity, with noticeable differences between short-term instruments (bills maturing in 1-2 years) and longer-term securities (10- and 30-year bonds). The scale of the debt is significant: by the end of 2026, the total U.S. federal debt is projected to reach around $40 trillion. This debt consists of two components: internal debt (obligations to government entities, including pension funds) and public debt (securities sold to investors). As a percentage of GDP, the debt level is approaching 125%, indicating a high debt burden. Given the chronic federal budget deficit, further debt accumulation is likely. The Congressional Budget Office projects that by 2047, the debt-to-GDP ratio could exceed 200%, highlighting long-term fiscal risks. This analysis was presented by Alexei Grishchenko, Ph.D., Professor at the Department of Operational and Sectoral Management of the Higher School of Management at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

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