IEA Downgrades Global Oil Demand Forecast for 2026

© изображение сгенерировано ИИ

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly downgraded its outlook for global oil demand in 2026, TASS reports. According to the new forecast, demand could drop by 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) compared to the previous year.

The revision is primarily driven by the consequences of the Middle East conflict. In its May forecast, the IEA had expected a much smaller decline of 418,000 bpd. As a result, the new estimate is 735,000 bpd worse than the previous one.

The agency notes that the most significant drop in consumption occurred in April and May, when the impact of the Middle East crisis was particularly pronounced in oil market statistics.

However, the IEA anticipates a gradual improvement in the second half of the year. In the third quarter, global oil consumption is projected to fall by 1.7 million bpd year-on-year. By the fourth quarter, a return to growth is expected, with an increase of around 1.1 million bpd.

As a result, average global oil demand in 2026 is forecast at 103.292 million bpd. For comparison, in 2025, the figure stood at 104.41 million bpd.

For 2027, the IEA predicts further growth in global demand, reaching 105.295 million bpd.