Zabotkin: The scenario of keeping the rate at 17% until spring does not correspond to the trajectory of the Central Bank

19:40; 04 October 2025 year

The Bank of Russia has given clear signals to the market: despite the reduction in the key rate, the era of cheap money is not over the horizon. In an interview

The regulator emphasizes that the main thing for it is the predictability of fiscal policy. A balanced budget, according to Zabotkin, "is much better than increasing the deficit."

There is no trend to weaken the ruble exchange rate.

Responding to the concerns of businesses and the public about the weakening of the national currency, the deputy chairman of the Central Bank took a calm position. According to Zabotkin, the dollar exchange rate in the range of 80 to 84 rubles is at the bottom of the corridor where the ruble has been for the past two years.

The deputy chairman clearly linked the stability of the exchange rate with price stability. There will be no sustained weakening "if inflation is low and predictable."

The regulator has made it clear that it does not intend to succumb to pressure from those who demand more aggressive monetary policy easing.

Zabotkin also recalled that even in 2026, the Central Bank predicts an average rate of 12-13%. This means that the rate will remain high for a long time.

When asked about the likelihood of keeping the rate at the current level until spring, Zabotkin replied that this "will require a significant revision of the forecast" and does not meet the current expectations of the Central Bank. The deputy chairman admitted that public calls for a sharp rate cut from the government and business are hindering the main reduction in inflation expectations of the population.

Zabotkin commented on the fact that the consensus forecasts before the September meeting did not come true again. During periods of mixed economic dynamics, different indicators give mixed signals, which confuses external analysts. The Central Bank is more cautious here. The regulator assessed the summer slowdown in inflation "less rosy" than the market, and took into account the acceleration of lending.

Zabotkin noted that for the Central Bank, its own macro forecast and data are more important, and discrepancies with the consensus are a reason to "understand" rather than doubt decisions.

When asked about his personal investments, Zabotkin answered simply and pointedly. As an employee of the Central Bank, he cannot actively play on the stock exchange, so he keeps his savings in ruble deposits.

Zabotkin also stressed that the course would follow "a trajectory consistent with a decrease in inflation to 4%." If inflation is low and predictable, then there cannot be a sustained "self-sustaining" weakening of the ruble, which Russians and businesses fear.

Investment

Events

Niches and markets

Technologies and trends

Development infrastructure