The Central Bank will have no choice but to reduce the rate to 15-16% by the end of the year - Kogan Economist

12:40; 14 May 2025 year

The central bank will lower its key rate by 15-16% by the end of the year. This opinion was voiced by Russian economist Evgeny Kogan, who is headlining the All-Russian Financial Forum Finmarket in Yekaterinburg, reports «Federal Business Magazine. The Urals.

"Regarding the key rate, my opinion is that the Central Bank will have no choice but to lower the rate to 15-16% per annum by the end of the year," he said and gave reasons for his assumption.

In his opinion, there are a number of prerequisites for this: a real slowdown in inflation, a statement by the Central Bank about the absence of plans to tighten the PREP. The economist expects inflation to slow down by 6-6.5% by the end of the year.

- We see the over-strengthening of the ruble, which affects budget occupancy in general. The ruble also needs to be stabilized: such a ruble is beneficial to importers, but it is extremely unprofitable for the Russian economy. Finally, the high key interest rate is one of the most serious reasons for the slowdown in the Russian economy, Kogan noted.

Taken together, all this indicates that the Central Bank has virtually no choice but to lower the rate.

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