Alexei Rogozin Outlines Aviation Industry Development Trajectory for 2026

© тг-канал Алексея Рогозина

General Director of the Russian Aircraft Manufacturers Union, Alexei Rogozin, believes that 2026 will be a decisive year for high-tech industries, particularly aviation. It will serve as a "test of resilience" for decisions, sometimes made in a "firefighting" manner, which will either become part of the system or be pushed out. In his Telegram channel, Rogozin outlined five areas that deserve special attention in the coming year. He emphasized that individually, they are "episodes," but together they create a "new industrial structure."

Integration of State Defense Orders and "Public Defense Industry"

- We are already seeing an attempt to combine two modes: traditional state defense orders under the rules of Federal Law No. 275 and a flexible, front-oriented supply model from initiative teams and enthusiasts. Large corporations have much to learn from private entities, but so far, the results are weak. The question is whether a stable and legally based mechanism will emerge, capable of simultaneously ensuring speed, adaptability, control, and scale.

Civil Aviation: From Type Certificates to Series Production

- Aircraft manufacturers need to master at least five new types of domestic aircraft simultaneously: Il-114, MC-21, Sukhoi Superjet, Tu-214, and Baikal - an unprecedented task. Official certification (i.e., independent confirmation of airworthiness) of new aircraft is important, but it can no longer be considered the ultimate goal. The main task is to refine cooperation chains, increase supply stability, improve personnel training, and after-sales service. This is what distinguishes series production from manual individual assembly. 2026 will show how much it will be possible, under strict sanctions and restrictions, to transition from individual products to a reproducible system.

New Flexible Regulatory Framework: Risk-Based Approach to Requirements Development

- In Russia, a foundation has already been created for the approval of new equipment based on principles of differentiated and proportionate approach. This primarily concerns drones and light aviation - two industries that can provide new quality in regional development. However, it remains unclear whether this proportionate approach to real risks will become a real tool or remain a declaration. The balance is important: flexibility should not lead to a loss of safety, but safety should not justify bureaucratization. The goal is not to abolish any prohibitions. The aim is to create a regulatory and standardization system that quickly responds to any new challenges.

Moving Beyond "Kit Assembly"

- As requirements for technical complexity, reliability, and autonomy increase, the model of assembly from ready-made kits ceases to work. System engineering, digital modeling, and new materials come to the fore. It is good to be flexible and able to act based on template solutions, but in 2026, fundamental knowledge and systemic thinking should begin to play a greater role. Simply passing off Chinese products as domestic ones becomes more difficult, but ultimately, everything will depend on the position of customers.

Management in Conditions of Both Uncertainty and Increased Control

- This is a systemic problem: how to maintain the pace while working in a situation of constant changes (requirements and regulations) and at the same time fit into the tightening framework of reporting, control, and regulations. Those who learn to build processes will survive. As never before, there is a demand for those who can make decisions and take responsibility, the expert wrote.