### U.S. Treasury Market Overview: Debt Dynamics and Long-Term Risks
The U.S. Treasury market relies on Treasury securities (Treasuries), which are issued by the U.S. Department of the Treasury to finance government spending. These securities are traditionally considered among the most reliable and liquid assets in the global financial system.
Current market conditions reflect moderate tension: the yield on 10-year Treasury notes (US 10y) approached 5.1% on Thursday.
However, the yield structure of U.S. government debt remains differentiated by maturity—significant differences are observed between short-term instruments (bills with 1-2 year maturities) and long-term securities (10- and 30-year bonds).
The scale of the debt is significant: by the end of 2026, the total U.S. government debt is expected to reach around $40 trillion. Its structure includes two components: internal debt (obligations to government entities, including pension funds) and public debt (securities issued to investors). In relation to GDP, the debt volume approaches 125%, indicating a high debt burden.
Given the chronic federal budget deficit, further debt accumulation appears likely. The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that by 2047, the debt-to-GDP ratio could exceed 200%, highlighting long-term fiscal risks.
This overview was presented by Alexey Grishchenko, Ph.D., professor at the Department of Operational and Sectoral Management of the "Higher School of Management" Faculty at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.