U.S. Treasury Market Yields Rise Amid Inflation Concerns

21:43; 15 October 2026 year

### U.S. Treasury Market Overview: Balancing Reliability and Debt Growth The U.S. Treasury market relies heavily on **Treasury securities (Treasuries)**, which are issued by the U.S. Department of the Treasury to finance government expenditures. These securities are traditionally considered among the most reliable and liquid assets in the global financial system. Current market conditions reflect moderate tension: the yield on 10-year Treasury notes (US 10y) approached 5.1% on Thursday. However, the yield structure of U.S. government debt remains differentiated across maturities—significant differences are observed between short-term instruments (bills with 1-2 year maturities) and long-term securities (10- and 30-year bonds). The scale of the debt is substantial: by the end of 2026, the total U.S. government debt is projected to reach around $40 trillion. This debt is composed of two main components: **internal debt** (obligations to government entities, including pension funds) and **public debt** (securities issued to investors). In relation to GDP, the debt-to-GDP ratio is approaching 125%, indicating a high debt burden. Given the chronic federal budget deficit, further debt accumulation is likely. The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that by 2047, the debt-to-GDP ratio could exceed 200%, highlighting long-term fiscal risks. This overview was presented by Alexey Grishchenko, Ph.D., Professor at the Department of Operational and Sectoral Management of the **Higher School of Management** at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

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