Russian Analysts Downgrade Key Rate and Inflation Forecasts

© ЦБ РФ

Analysts surveyed by the Bank of Russia have revised their expectations for key macroeconomic indicators. According to the updated forecast, the average key interest rate in 2026 will be 14.5% per annum, compared to the previously expected 14.1%.

As follows from the materials of the regular macroeconomic survey conducted by the Central Bank (CB), experts have also raised their forecast for the average key interest rate in subsequent years. For 2027, expectations have increased from 10.6% to 12.2%, for 2028 from 9% to 10%, and for 2029 from 8.1% to 8.6%.

At the same time, analysts have become less optimistic about the prospects for the Russian economy. The GDP growth forecast for 2026 has been reduced from 0.7% to 0.6%, and for 2027 from 1.5% to 1.3%. Estimates for 2028 and 2029 remain unchanged at 1.7% and 1.8%, respectively.

Survey participants also worsened their inflation forecast. According to their expectations, consumer price growth in 2026 will amount to 6.2% instead of the previously forecasted 5.3%. The forecast for 2027 has been raised from 4.4% to 4.6%, for 2028 to 4.1%, while inflation expectations for 2029 remain at the target level of 4%.

In addition, analysts have adjusted their forecasts for the ruble exchange rate. The average annual dollar exchange rate in 2026 is now expected to be 78.4 rubles compared to the previous 78.1 rubles. The forecast for 2027 has been raised to 86.6 rubles per dollar. However, the estimate for 2028 was slightly lowered to 92.7 rubles, and for 2029, experts expect an average rate of 95.8 rubles per dollar.