IMF Predicts 100% Oil, 200% Gas Price Surge in Prolonged Middle East Conflict

© изображение сгенерировал ИИ

If the Middle East conflict drags on, it will have the most severe economic consequences, including a 100% and 200% increase in oil and gas prices in 2026-2027. This forecast was presented by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in its latest report on global economic prospects.

The IMF has prepared three scenarios for the future development of the global economy. According to the optimistic forecast, "the war will be limited in duration, intensity and scope," and the negative economic consequences will disappear by mid-2026. In this case, oil prices will rise by 21.4%, reaching $82.22 per barrel in 2026 and $75.97 in the following year.

According to the most pessimistic scenario, the conflict will escalate.

"In the most adverse scenario, the shock to raw material prices is more severe and persistent, with oil prices rising by 100% starting in the second quarter of 2026 compared to the baseline level set in the January World Economic Outlook report, and remaining at that level in 2027 before dissipating in 2028," the forecast states.

Under this scenario, the average price of a barrel of oil will be around $110 in 2026 and within $125 in 2027. Gas prices for Europe and Asia will rise by 200% from current levels.