There are no reasons for sudden changes: economist Evgeny Kogan told what to expect from the ruble exchange rate

© Евгений Коган

Over the past three months, the dollar/ruble exchange rate has fallen by more than 15% to 98.11 rubles. The Central Bank cited the deterioration of foreign economic indicators as the reason for the fall, in particular, export revenues decreased and imports increased.Thus, in the third quarter of 2024, the current account surplus amounted to $9 billion, decreasing from $16 billion a year earlier and $17 billion in the previous quarter.According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, in 2024 imports to Russia will amount to $294.9 billion, exports to $427.6 billion, and in 2025 exports will grow to $445 billion, and imports to $321.9 billion. Evgeny Kogan, the economist, explained in his telegram channel why regulators do not interfere in the current situation, and what to expect from the ruble next.

So, according to Bloomberg, the government is ready to accept the ruble exchange rate at 100 per dollar, as this may help the state budget in the face of rising costs next year, writes Kogan. At the same time, according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Energy, in 2025 the average exchange rate will be 96.5 rubles per dollar compared with 91.2 rubles this year.

- Some media outlets are already predicting a drop to 105 rubles in November. As before, we do not expect any further decline, unless some kind of force majeure occurs.We are not expecting a sharp strengthening of the ruble either. Lower export prices may weaken the national currency, but high rates will help strengthen it by slowing lending and reducing import demand. The two effects compensate for each other, that is, there are no reasons for sudden changes in the exchange rate. But there are always risks, for example, increased sanctions on exports, including failures in the operation of payment systems. So, by the way, last week the United States imposed sanctions against almost 400 individuals and companies in India, China and Turkey, which help Russia circumvent restrictions. Conclusion: it is worth diversifying your portfolio and protecting yourself from currency risks, the expert concluded.