U.S. Treasury Yields Rise on Market Developments

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U.S. Treasury Market: Yields Rising Amid High Debt Levels

The U.S. government debt market is anchored by Treasury securities (Treasuries), which are issued by the U.S. Treasury Department to finance federal spending. These securities are traditionally considered among the safest and most liquid assets in the global financial system.

Current market conditions reflect ongoing tensions: the yield on 10-year Treasuries (US 10y) approached 5% on Thursday.

However, the yield structure remains differentiated across maturities, with notable differences between short-term instruments (bills with 1-2 year maturities) and long-term securities (10- and 30-year bonds).

The scale of the debt is significant: by the end of 2026, the total U.S. government debt is projected to reach around $40 trillion. This includes two components: internal debt (obligations to government entities, including pension funds) and public debt (securities sold to investors). In relation to GDP, the debt level is approaching 125%, indicating a high debt burden.

Given the chronic federal budget deficit, further debt accumulation is likely. The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that by 2047, the debt-to-GDP ratio could exceed 200%, highlighting long-term fiscal risks.

Analysis provided by Alexey Grishchenko, Ph.D., Professor at the Department of Operational and Sectoral Management, Higher School of Management, Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.