U.S. Treasury Market Sees Tensions Ease

21:35; 05 November 2026 year

### U.S. Treasury Market: Tensions Ease The U.S. government debt market is built around Treasury securities (Treasuries), which are issued by the U.S. Treasury Department to finance federal spending. These securities are traditionally considered among the most reliable and liquid assets in the global financial system. Current market conditions reflect moderate tension: the yield on 10-year Treasury notes (US 10y) approached 4.8% on Thursday. However, the yield structure of U.S. government debt remains differentiated across maturities—significant differences are observed between short-term instruments (bills with 1-2 year maturities) and long-term securities (10- and 30-year bonds). The scale of the debt is substantial: by the end of 2026, the total U.S. government debt is projected to reach around $40 trillion. Its composition includes two components: internal debt (obligations to government entities, including pension funds) and public debt (securities sold to investors). As a percentage of GDP, the debt level approaches 125%, indicating a high debt burden. Given the chronic federal budget deficit, further debt accumulation appears likely. The Congressional Budget Office forecasts that by 2047, the debt-to-GDP ratio could exceed 200%, highlighting long-term fiscal risks. This analysis was presented by Alexei Grishchenko, Ph.D., Professor at the Department of Operational and Sectoral Management of the Faculty of "Higher School of Management" at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation.

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