The Central Bank no longer expects a return to 4% inflation in 2026.

09:17; 13 March 2025 year

The Bank of Russia has presented an updated macroeconomic forecast until 2027, according to which inflation is not expected to return to the target level of 4% even in 2026. Economists have raised their inflation forecast to 7% for 2025 and 4.8% for 2026. In February, the indicator was 10.1%, but already in March, a slowdown to 8% was recorded, indicating a cooling in consumer demand.

As for the key rate, the regulator predicts its average annual level in 2025 at around 20.1%, with an expected decrease to 17% by the end of the year. The main risk factors for inflation remain increased budget expenditures and excess demand over supply. At the same time, a certain mitigation of inflationary pressure may ensure a possible strengthening of the ruble.

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